Sharon Kozicki was appointed Advisor to the Governor effective 26 August 2013. In that role, she is focused on the Canadian economy and monetary policy. She also serves as Secretary to Governing Council and leads the Bank’s research on the monetary policy framework.
Before becoming an Advisor, Ms. Kozicki served as Chief of the Bank’s Canadian Economic Analysis Department, a position to which she was appointed in September 2010. In this capacity, she was responsible for keeping Governing Council informed about economic developments and prospects in Canada in support of monetary policy decisions. Ms. Kozicki also oversaw longer-term research on the operation of the economy, inflation, macro-financial linkages, and the transmission channels of domestic and international monetary policies.
Prior to joining the Bank in 2006, Ms. Kozicki was an economist with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, DC, and later Vice President and Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. From November 2008 until September 2010, Ms. Kozicki was Deputy Chief of the Bank of Canada’s International Economic Analysis Department.
Born in Ottawa, Ms. Kozicki obtained a bachelor of science degree and a master’s degree in economics at the University of Toronto and a PhD from the University of California San Diego.
Prices of commodities, including metals, energy and agricultural products, rose markedly over the 2009–2010 period. Some observers have attributed a significant part of this increase in commodity prices to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs.
In this paper, a quarterly growth-accounting data set is built for the Canadian business sector with the top-down approach of Diewert and Yu (2012). Inputs and outputs are measured and used to estimate the quarterly total factor productivity (TFP).
As part of their policy response to the financial crisis of 2007–09, central banks introduced numerous unprecedented monetary policy measures to provide monetary easing. This article defines and documents these measures, focusing on central bank asset purchases and their impact on central bank balance sheets. It then discusses the challenges of identifying the effects of these measures and explores possible exit strategies. The potential costs of these policies are also analyzed, as well as the broader implications for monetary policy frameworks.
The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format.
"Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation", (with P. Tinsley), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(1): 145-169, 2012.
"Macro Has Progressed" Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(1): 23-28, 2012.
"Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance: An Application to the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve.” (with O. Jorda) in International Economic Review, 52 (2): 461‐87, 2011
"Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did: An Alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation," (with P. A. Tinsley) Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 56:6;, 842-855, September 2009.
"Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy" (with P.A. Tinsley) North American Journal of Economics and Finance, vo. 19(1), pages 1-92, March 2008.
"Minding the Gap: Central Bank Estimates of the Unemployment Natural Rate" (with P.A. Tinsley) in Computational Economics, 27(2-3), 295-327, April-May 2006.
"Estimating Equilibrium Real Interest Rates in Real Time" (with Todd Clark) North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16, 395-413, 2005.
"Permanent and Transitory Policy Shocks under Asymmetric Information" (with P.A. Tinsley) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29, 1985-2015, 2005.
"What do you expect? Imperfect Policy Credibility and Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis" (with P.A. Tinsley) Journal of Monetary Economics, 52:2, March 2005.
"Rounding Error: A Distorting Influence on Index Data" (with Barak Hoffman) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36, 319-338, June 2004.
"Dynamic Specifications in Optimizing Trend-Deviation Macro Models" (with P.A. Tinsley) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 2002.
"Shifting Endpoints in the Term Structure of Interest Rates" (with P.A. Tinsley) Journal of Monetary Economics, 47, 613-652, 2001.
"Term Structure Views of Monetary Policy Under Alternative Models of Agent Expectations" (with P.A. Tinsley) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 149-184, 2001.
"Rational Vector Error Correction" (with P.A. Tinsley) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, 1299-1327, 1999.
"Multivariate Detrending under Common Trend Restrictions: Implications for Business Cycle Research" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, 997-1028, 1999.
"Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts" (with P.A. Tinsley) Computational Economics, 11, 21-40, 1998.
"Testing for Common Features" (with Robert F. Engle) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 11, 369-380, 1993.
"Reply" (with Robert F. Engle), (reply to discussants of "Testing for Common Features," published in the same volume), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 11, 393-395, 1993.
"Parsing Shocks: Real-Time Revisions to Gap and Growth Projections for Canada" (with Russell Barnett and Christopher Petrinec) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Volume 91, Number 4, pp 247-265, July/August 2009.
"Longer-Term Perspectives on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy" (with Gordon H. Sellon Jr.) Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 2005.
"How do Data Revisions affect the Evaluation and Conduct of Monetary Policy" Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, First Quarter 2004. (Translated into Spanish by the Centre for Latin American Monetary Studies and published: "¿De qué forma afectan las revisions de datos a la evaluación y conducción de la política monetaria?" monetaria, Octubre-Diciembre, 2004.)
"Why Do Central Banks Monitor So Many Inflation Indicators?" Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Third Quarter 2001.
"How Useful are Taylor Rules for Monetary Policy?" Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Second Quarter 1999.
"Predicting Real Growth and Inflation with the Yield Spread" Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1997.
"The Productivity Growth Slowdown: Diverging Trends in the Manufacturing and Service Sectors" Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, First Quarter 1997.
"The Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates in the FRB/US Model" (with David Reifschneider and P.A. Tinsley) in The Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of Expectations, BIS Conference Papers, 2, August 1996.
"Discussion" (comments on 'Estimating Forward-Looking Euler Equations with GMM and Maximum Likelihood Estimators: An Optimal Instruments Approach,' by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and Giovanni P. Olivei,) proceedings of the March 2004 Federal Reserve Board conference Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley, 115-125, 2005.
"Comments on 'Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists'" Journal of Macroeconomics, 24, 2002.
"Term Premia: Endogenous Constraints on Monetary Policy" (with P.A. Tinsley) Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper RWP 02-07.
"Revisiting a Test of the CAPM" (with Pu Shen). (An earlier version of the paper appeared as Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper 97-06 with the title "Breathing Room for Beta.")
"Predicting Inflation with the Term Structure Spread" Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper 98-02.
"The Comovement of Output and Labor Productivity in Aggregate Data for Auto Assembly Plants" (with Ana Aizcorbe), Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-33.
"Balancing Theory and Empirical Fit in Structural Macroeconomic Modeling" (with Mark French, Eileen Mauskopf, Peter von zur Muehlen) Federal Reserve Board, Mimeo, December 1994.
"A Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure" Federal Reserve Board, Mimeo, March 1994.
"Techniques for Estimating Dynamic Comovement with an Application to Common International Output Fluctuations" Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-32.
"Monthly Estimates of Canadian GDP and its Price Deflator" Bank of Canada Technical Working Paper 89-2.
Executive Council, Canadian Economic Association, 2007 – 2010
Editorial Board, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003 – Current
Associate Editor, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2006 – Current
Associate Editor, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2006 – Current
Member of the Society of Computational Economics (SCE) Advisory Committee, 2004-2007