P. A. Tinsley

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Staff working papers

Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2007-30 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley
Under bond-rate transmission of monetary policy, the authors show that a generalized Taylor Principle applies, in which the average anticipated path of policy responses to inflation is subject to a lower bound of unity. This result helps explain how bond rates may exhibit stable responses to inflation, even in periods of passive policy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, N, N1

Perhaps the FOMC Did What It Said It Did: An Alternative Interpretation of the Great Inflation

Staff Working Paper 2007-19 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley
This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation. Empirical results support a description of policy with an effective inflation target of roughly 7 percent in the 1970s.

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