Monetary policy

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-17 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos

  We provide an update on the state of the labour market, which has moved into modest excess supply. We also explore why wage growth measures remain elevated and how US trade policy could affect different parts of the labour market. We update the range of benchmarks in our dashboard of indicators.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6
• June 17, 2025

  Understanding our policy interest rate

  At the heart of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy is the target for the overnight rate. See what it is—and what it means for you.

  Content Type(s): Explainers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider

  We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-14 Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Mark Kim, Temel Taskin

  We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

• Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn, James Kyeong, Rishi Vala, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
• February 3, 2025

  Understanding quantitative easing

  QE is a tool that encourages spending and investment—helping us to achieve our inflation target by stabilizing the economy.

  Content Type(s): Explainers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy

• Interaction of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies: Practice Ahead of Theory

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-18 Thibaut Duprey, Yaz Terajima, Jing Yang

  We draw on the Canadian experience to examine how monetary and macroprudential policies interact and possibly complement each other in achieving their respective price and financial stability objectives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
• December 16, 2024

  Lessons for the future

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses what the Bank of Canada learned from the pandemic experience and outlines how the Bank is preparing for a more uncertain future.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework
• December 16, 2024

  Delivering price stability: Learning from the past, preparing for the future

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  Governor Tiff Macklem reflects on the lessons learned from the pandemic and its aftermath and outlines how the Bank is preparing for the challenges of the future.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework
• November 26, 2024

  Keeping inflation at 2%

  Speech summary Rhys R. Mendes Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island

  In his first public speech as a deputy governor, Rhys Mendes explains why higher interest rates were needed to get inflation back down to the 2% target and why we want it to stay there.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Price stability