Monetary Policy

• September 27, 2018 Technological Disruption and Opportunity

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Atlantic Provinces Economics Council and Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce Moncton, New Brunswick

  Governor Poloz talks about how new digital technologies create opportunities in the economy and affect how the Bank conducts monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary Policy, Potential output, Productivity

• September 6, 2018 An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan

  Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-28 José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Jonathan Swarbrick

  We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout

  This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• August 25, 2018 The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Central Banking

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole, Wyoming

  Governor Poloz talks about the economic benefits expected from disruptive digital technologies and the implications for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary Policy, Productivity

• Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2018-38 Dmitry Matveev

  This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63

• The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2018-37 Yuko Imura, Malik Shukayev

  This paper studies the effects of monetary policy shocks on firms’ participation in exporting. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms make forward-looking decisions on whether to participate in the export market and prices are staggered across firms and time.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F12, F4, F44

• Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2018-36 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini

  Many central banks are contemplating whether to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC). CBDC has certain potential benefits, including the possibility that it can bear interest.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Digital Currencies, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50

• Following the Money: Evidence for the Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing

  Staff Working Paper 2018-33 Itay Goldstein, Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang

  Recent research suggests that quantitative easing (QE) may affect a broad range of asset prices through a portfolio balance channel. Using novel security-level holding data of individual US mutual funds, we establish evidence that portfolio rebalancing occurred both within and across funds.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Monetary Policy, Monetary policy implementation, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G23

• The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-22 Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich

  The neutral nominal policy rate serves as a benchmark for assessing the degree of monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the policy rate. Since quantitative measures of the neutral rate are subject to considerable uncertainty, Bank staff rely on four different approaches to estimate the Canadian neutral rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41