Monetary Policy

• The Impact of Surprising Monetary Policy Announcements on Exchange Rate Volatility

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-39 Adam Albogatchiev, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu, Reginald Xie

  We identify a few Bank of Canada press releases that had the largest immediate impact on the exchange rate market. We find that volatility increases after these releases, but the effect is short-lived and mostly dissipates after the first hour, on average. Beyond the first hour, the size of the effect is similar to what we observe for other economic releases, such as those for inflation or economic growth data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G10, G12, G14, G15

• Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni Donfack

  We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43
• November 5, 2018

  Making Sense of Markets

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canada–UK Chamber of Commerce London, United Kingdom

  Governor Poloz discusses how the Bank uses financial market information in its monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments

• Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2018-52 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E1, E17, E3, E37
• October 31, 2018

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

  Opening Statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Transmission of monetary policy
• October 30, 2018

  Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

  Opening Statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Transmission of monetary policy
• September 27, 2018

  Technological Disruption and Opportunity

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Atlantic Provinces Economics Council and Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce Moncton, New Brunswick

  Governor Poloz talks about how new digital technologies create opportunities in the economy and affect how the Bank conducts monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary Policy, Potential output, Productivity
• September 8, 2018

  Investing in Monetary Policy Independence in a Small Open Economy

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz, Césaire Meh Monetary Policy Spillovers in a Financially Integrated World Copenhagen, Denmark

  Governor Poloz discusses policies that can help central banks keep the ability to pursue independent monetary policy in a financially integrated global economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Fiscal Policy, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy implementation
• September 6, 2018

  An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan

  Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-28 José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Jonathan Swarbrick

  We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17