Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022 Staff Analytical Note 2022-4 Kyle Boutilier, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Eshini Ekanayake, Louis Poirier, Peter Shannon, Akash Uppal, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
March 3, 2022 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments
March 3, 2022 Economic progress report: Controlling inflation Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and what’s driving inflation in Canada. He also discusses how the Bank will manage the next step in the Bank’s balance sheet operations – quantitative tightening. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet
March 3, 2022 Getting inflation back to target Speech summary Tiff Macklem CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank of Canada’s decision yesterday to raise its policy interest rate. He explains that after two years of extraordinary stimulus, we are now on a path of rising interest rates. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet
February 2, 2022 A Canadian interest rate benchmark regime for the future Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle International Swaps and Derivatives Association New York, New York Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses some important changes that may be coming to Canada’s interest rate benchmarks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing
December 9, 2021 Keeping our eyes on inflation Speech summary Toni Gravelle Surrey Board of Trade Surrey, British Columbia Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle talks about the Bank of Canada’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. He explains the link between supply bottlenecks and high inflation and why the Bank thinks both will ease over time. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
December 9, 2021 Economic progress report: A recovery unlike any other Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle Surrey Board of Trade Surrey, British Columbia Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle provides an economic update and discusses the relationship between supply bottlenecks and inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation Staff Working Paper 2021-59 Igor Livshits, Youngmin Park We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, P, P4, P48
Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory Staff Working Paper 2021-58 Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung, Gonzalo Morales Do bond risk premiums influence the effects of debt maturity operations? Using a model with realistic bond risk premiums, we show that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output when the central bank passively responds to inflation and the fiscal authority weakly responds to the debt level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E6, E63, G, G1, G12