June 10, 2021 The digital transformation and Canada’s economic resilience Remarks (delivered virtually) Timothy Lane Advocis Western Canada Chapters Edmonton, Alberta, Vancouver, British Columbia, Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Tim Lane talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and discusses how the digital transformation has supported resilience through the pandemic and may be adding to the economy’s growth potential. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
May 13, 2021 Including everyone helps all of us Speech summary Tiff Macklem Universities of Atlantic Canada Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem explains why including people from all backgrounds is good for the Bank of Canada and the entire economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, Monetary policy, Potential output
May 13, 2021 The benefits of an inclusive economy Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Universities of Atlantic Canada Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem talks about diversity and inclusion are important for the Bank of Canada, for the economics and finance profession, and for the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, Monetary policy, Potential output
Four Decades of Canadian Earnings Inequality and Dynamics Across Workers and Firms Staff Working Paper 2021-20 Audra Bowlus, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Huju Liu, Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park We use four decades of Canadian matched employer-employee data to explore how inequality and the dynamics of individual earnings have evolved over time in Canada. We also examine how the earnings growth of individuals is related to the growth of their employers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, J6, J63
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update Staff Analytical Note 2021-6 Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021 Staff Analytical Note 2021-5 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2021-14 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine We investigate the economic forces behind the secular decline in bond yields. Before the anchoring of inflation in the mid-1990s, nominal shocks drove inflation, output and bond yields. Afterward, the impacts of nominal shocks were much less significant. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12
February 23, 2021 Working toward a shared recovery Speech summary Tiff Macklem Edmonton Chamber of Commerce and the Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy and jobs could be different after the COVID-19 pandemic and what we can do to ensure that everyone benefits as the labour market recovers. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments
February 23, 2021 Canada’s labour market: rebound, recuperation and restructuring Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Edmonton Chamber of Commerce and Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the COVID-19 pandemic and major economic forces are affecting the labour market, and the need for all groups to benefits from the recovery. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments
Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap? Staff Discussion Paper 2020-14 Calista Cheung, Luke Frymire, Lise Pichette We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3