How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework Staff analytical note 2018-11 Alexander Ueberfeldt, Thibaut Duprey Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
A Policy Framework for E-Money: A Report on Bank of Canada Research Staff discussion paper 2018-5 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Francisco Rivadeneyra We present a policy framework for electronic money and payments. The framework poses a set of positive questions related to the areas of responsibility of central banks: payments systems, monetary policy and financial stability. The questions are posed to four broad forms of e-money: privately or publicly issued, and with centralized or decentralized verification of transactions. This framework is intended to help evaluate the trade-offs that central banks face in the decision to issue new forms of e-money. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E51, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability? Staff working paper 2018-17 José Dorich, Nicholas Labelle, Vadym Lepetyuk, Rhys R. Mendes Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff analytical note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff working paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts? Staff working paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Credit Crunches from Occasionally Binding Bank Borrowing Constraints Staff working paper 2017-57 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E5, E51, G, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models
Central Bank Digital Currency: Motivations and Implications Staff discussion paper 2017-16 Walter Engert, Ben Fung The emergence of digital currencies such as Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain and distribution ledger technology have attracted significant attention. These developments have raised the possibility of considerable impacts on the financial system and perhaps the wider economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements Staff analytical note 2017-22 Bruno Feunou, Corey Garriott, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff analytical note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting