AI Paradox: Promise vs. Reality—What It Means for Monetary Policy Staff analytical paper 2026-4 Joshua Brault, Maryam Haghighi, Jing Yang This note reviews the emerging evidence on AI’s labour-market and productivity effects, highlighting early task-level impacts, sizable micro level productivity gains, and the macroeconomic challenges these pose for monetary policy during the transition. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E50, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Consumers’ Path to Mortgage Delinquency Staff analytical paper 2026-3 Laura Zhao, Jia Qi Xiao, Aidan Witts Analyzing TransUnion data from 2015–2024, this study identifies a systematic timeline of distress where rising credit utilization and non-mortgage arrears precede mortgage delinquency by up to two years. This deterioration intensifies in the final six months, providing a robust suite of high-frequency indicators for monitoring emerging household stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Channels of Transmission: How Mortgage Rates Affect House Prices and Rents in Canada Staff analytical paper 2026-2 Nishaad Rao, Tao Wang We use Canadian data to examine how monetary policy affects house prices and the consumer price index for rent through exogenous changes in the mortgage interest rates. It finds that the price and rent impacts operate through various channels and that these impacts vary by region. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, R, R2, R21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Extraordinary Forward Guidance in Canada During the Pandemic Staff analytical paper 2026-1 Christopher S. Sutherland We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting. We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both trade-offs relatively well. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation