Research Field(s): Asset Pricing Financial Economics Financial Markets Macroeconomic Theory Macroeconomics Monetary Economics Money and Banking Quantitative Macroeconomics

Staff research

Assessing risks to oil prices through options markets

Sparks at Bank article Harshbir Kaur, Eugene Trostin, Rishi Vala
After the war in the Middle East began, futures markets hinted at how long oil prices could stay above their pre-war levels. Options on those futures further reveal how investors see the range and balance of risks around future oil prices—which helps central banks assess risks to inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission

Unpacking interest rate uncertainty in 2025

Staff analytical paper 2026-25 Harshbir Kaur, Rishi Vala
Amid heightened Canada–US trade tensions in 2025, financial markets showed signs that investors had greater difficulty anticipating near-term Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. We look at the Overnight Index Swap prices and intraday Government of Canada yields to identify the main driver of uncertainty around interest rate decisions.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission

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