Staff Working Papers

Research intended for journal publication and published in progress, in order to invite feedback from a technical audience.

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1157 result(s)

From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy Across Gender

Staff Working Paper 2021-42 Alica Ida Bonk, Laure Simon
The effects of fiscal policy shocks on labour market outcomes across gender depend on the type of public expenditure. Women benefit most from increases in the government wage bill, while men are the main beneficiaries of higher investment spending.

Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes

Staff Working Paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis
How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes.

Measuring the Effectiveness of Salespeople: Evidence from a Cold-Drink Market

Staff Working Paper 2021-40 Haofeng Jin, Zhentong Lu
Salespeople are widely employed in many industries. We leverage a unique data set on retail sales from a leading Chinese cold-drink manufacturer and information on the firm’s salespeople assignment rule to measure the causal effect of salespeople on product revenue.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Service sector JEL Code(s): L, L8, L81, M, M3, M5

Centralizing Over-the-Counter Markets?

Staff Working Paper 2021-39 Jason Allen, Milena Wittwer
Would a shift in trading in fixed-income markets—from over the counter (bilateral trading) to a centralized electronic platform—improve welfare? We use trade-level data on the secondary market for Government of Canada debt to answer this question.

Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth Redistribution

Staff Working Paper 2021-38 Martin Kuncl, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting.

Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers

Staff Working Paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp
Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links.

Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter

Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia
Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31

Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions

Staff Working Paper 2021-35 Grzegorz Halaj, Sofia Priazhkina
Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario.

The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation

Staff Working Paper 2021-34 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra
The secular decline in real interest rates has created a challenge for monetary policy, now confronting the zero lower bound more often. An increase in the supply of safe assets reduces downward pressure on the natural interest rate. This allows monetary policy to reach price stability and full employment, but not without cost—permanently lower investment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, G, G1, H, H6

The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations

Staff Working Paper 2021-33 Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib, Zhen Huo
We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes.
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