Browse research

Find Bank of Canada research by keyword, author, content type, JEL code, topic or date of publication.

Receive notification by email whenever new research is added to the website.

Contains

Authors

Content Types

JEL Codes

Research Topics

Published After

Published Before

1993 result(s)

Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

Staff Discussion Paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West
We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71

How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis

Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 Claudia Godbout, Adam Su, Yang Xu
We update an assessment of potential changes in payments that mortgage holders could face at renewal in 2025 and 2026. We use an enhanced dataset (RESL2) that provides a more accurate starting point for mortgage balances.

The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices

Staff Analytical Note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang
Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds.

Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2024 global monitoring report

Staff Analytical Note 2025-19 Elba Gomez Navas Acevedo, Thomas Thorn
We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2023. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G22, G23

Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency

Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli
Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk

On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies

Staff Working Paper 2025-18 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet
Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity of money. We develop a stylized model to examine this argument and the trade-offs involved in circulating programmable money.

Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey

Staff Working Paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang
We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83

Incorporating Trip-Chaining to Measuring Canadians’ Access to Cash

Staff Working Paper 2025-16 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao
Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15 to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, O, O1, O18, R, R2, R22, R4, R41

Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018

Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam
US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method.

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update

Staff Analytical Note 2025-17 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos
We provide an update on the state of the labour market, which has moved into modest excess supply. We also explore why wage growth measures remain elevated and how US trade policy could affect different parts of the labour market. We update the range of benchmarks in our dashboard of indicators.
Go To Page