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1864
result(s)
Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata
Staff Analytical Note 2024-6
Olga Bilyk,
Mikael Khan,
Olena Kostyshyna
Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L1,
L11
Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys
Staff Analytical Note 2024-5
Nicolas Bédard,
Patrick Sabourin
We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy transmission,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
G,
G5,
H,
H3
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach
Staff Working Paper 2024-10
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Kerem Tuzcuoglu
We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
C53,
E,
E3,
E32
COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-2
Angelika Welte,
Katrina Talavera,
Liang Wang,
Joy Wu
The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E4,
L,
L2
CBDC: Banking and Anonymity
Staff Working Paper 2024-9
Yuteng Cheng,
Ryuichiro Izumi
We examine the optimal amount of user anonymity in a central bank digital currency in the context of bank lending. Anonymity, defined as the lender’s inability to discern an entrepreneur’s actions that enable fund diversion, influences the choice of payment instrument due to its impact on a bank’s lending decisions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E58,
G,
G2,
G28
Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks
Staff Working Paper 2024-8
Amina Enkhbold
I investigate how monetary policy transmits to mortgage rates via the mortgage market concentration channel for both traditional and shadow banks in the United States from 2009 to 2019. On average, shadow and traditional banks exhibit only a slight disparity in transmitting monetary shocks to mortgage rates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
G,
G2,
G21
Regulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan
Staff Working Paper 2024-7
Brantly Callaway,
Tong Li,
Joel Rodrigue,
Yuya Sasaki,
Yong Tan
We study the degree to which China’s 11th Five-Year Plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C21,
D,
D2,
D24,
Q,
Q5,
Q53
What has been putting upward pressure on CORRA?
Staff Analytical Note 2024-4
Boran Plong,
Neil Maru
From the autumn of 2023 into early 2024, the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA), a measure of the cost of overnight general collateral Canadian dollar repos, was consistently well above the Bank’s target for the overnight rate. We find that, among several factors, long bond positions that require repo financing are the main driver of the recent upward pressure on CORRA.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates,
Lender of last resort,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D5,
D53,
E,
E4,
E43,
E44,
E5,
E52,
G,
G1,
G12
Decomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses
Staff Working Paper 2024-6
Radoslav Raykov
Do banks realize simultaneous trading losses because they invest in the same assets, or because different assets are subject to the same macro shocks? This paper decomposes the comovements of bank trading losses into two orthogonal channels: portfolio overlap and common shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G11,
G2,
G20