Simon van Norden

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Filtering for Current Analysis

Staff Working Paper 2002-28 Simon van Norden
This paper shows how existing band-pass filtering techniques and their extension can be applied to the common current-analysis problem of estimating current trends or cycles.

La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden
In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada

Technical Report No. 79 Pierre St-Amant, Simon van Norden
In this paper, we discuss some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented.
Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24

Fads or Bubbles?

Staff Working Paper 1997-2 Huntley Schaller, Simon van Norden
This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a new empirical strategy (based on switching-regression econometrics) for distinguishing between competing asset-pricing models. By extending the Blanchard and Watson (1982) model, we show how stochastic bubbles can lead to regime-switching in stock market returns.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12

Reconsidering Cointegration in International Finance: Three Case Studies of Size Distortion in Finite Samples

Staff Working Paper 1997-1 Marie-Josée Godbout, Simon van Norden
This paper reconsiders several recently published but controversial results about the behaviour of exchange rates. In particular, it explores finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests and shows how these may have affected the conclusions of recent research.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C2, C22, C3, C32, F, F3, F31

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