C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

• How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang

  This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31

• The Business Leaders’ Pulse—An Online Business Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-14 Tony Chernis, Chris D'Souza, Kevin MacLean, Tasha Reader, Joshua Slive, Farrukh Suvankulov

  This paper introduces the Business Leaders’ Pulse, a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making by asking firms about their sales and employment growth expectations, the risks to their business outlook, and topical questions that address specific information needs of the Bank.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Historical Data on Repurchase Agreements from the Canadian Depository for Securities

  Technical Report No. 121 Maxim Ralchenko, Adrian Walton

  We develop an algorithm that extracts information about sale and repurchase agreements (repos) from disaggregated settlement data in order to generate a new historical dataset for research.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, G, G1, G10

• Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods

  Technical Report No. 120 Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Craig Logan, Miguel Molico, Xiangjin Shen, Marie-Christine Tremblay

  A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C83, G, G1, G3, G32

• Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places

  Staff Working Paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd

  The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Small and smaller: How the economic outlook of small firms relates to size

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-14 Chris D'Souza, James Fudurich, Farrukh Suvankulov

  Firms with fewer than 100 workers employ about 65 percent of the total labour force in Canada. An online survey experiment was conducted with firms of this size in Canada in 2018–19. We compare the responses of small and micro firms to explore how their characteristics and economic outlooks relate to their size.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-1 Chris D'Souza, Jane Voll

  Central banks conduct research involving in-depth interviews with external parties—but little is known about how this information affects monetary policy. We address this gap by analyzing open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52

• A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-15 David Amirault, Naveen Rai, Laurent Martin

  The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning

  Staff Working Paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez

  Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C6, C65, C8, C81, E, E4, E42, E5, E51

• Sample Calibration of the Online CFM Survey

  Technical Report No. 118 Marie-Hélène Felt, David Laferrière

  The Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey uses non-probability sampling for data collection, so selection bias is likely. We outline methods for obtaining survey weights and discuss the conditions necessary for these weights to eliminate selection bias. We obtain calibration weights for the 2018 and 2019 online CFM samples.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83