Housing
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ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis
ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution. -
May 20, 2021
Release of the Financial System Review
Press conference following the release of the Financial System Review. -
Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances. -
Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness
Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified. -
Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market
How do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11. -
June 18, 2020
Spending patterns in a pandemic
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how household spending has changed because of COVID-19 and discusses why the Bank expects the recovery to have two phases. -
June 18, 2020
Living with limits: household behaviour in Canada in the time of COVID-19
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri explains how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected household spending and economic activity, and discusses what the recovery is expected to look like. -
Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19
COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults. -
May 27, 2020
What’s behind your mortgage rate
Here’s what determines the interest rate on your mortgage—and why that rate can go up and down.