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407 Results

Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks

We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience.

Exploring the drivers of the real term premium in Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2025-3 Zabi Tarshi, Gitanjali Kumar
Changes in the term premium can reflect uncertainty about inflation, growth and monetary policy. Understanding the key factors that influence the term premium is important when central banks make decisions about monetary policy. In this paper, we derive the real term premium from the nominal term premium in Canada.

Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar

Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies.

CBDC in the Market for Payments at the Point of Sale: Equilibrium Impact and Incumbent Responses

Staff Working Paper 2024-52 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel
We simulate introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and consider consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and usage at the point of sale. Modest adoption frictions significantly inhibit CBDC market penetration along all three dimensions. Incumbent responses to restore pre-CBDC market shares are moderate to small and further reduce the impact of a CBDC.

The impact of a central bank digital currency on payments at the point of sale

Staff Analytical Note 2024-27 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel
We simulate the impact of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and use of different payment methods. Modest frictions that deter consumer adoption of a CBDC inhibit its market penetration. Minor pricing responses by financial institutions and payment service providers further reduce the impact of a CBDC.

Familiarity with Crypto and Financial Concepts: Cryptoasset Owners, Non-Owners, and Gender Differences

Measuring cryptoasset knowledge alongside financial knowledge enhances our understanding of individuals' decisions to purchase cryptoassets. This paper uses microdata from the Bank of Canada’s Bitcoin Omnibus Survey to examine gender differences and the interrelationship between crypto and financial knowledge through an empirical joint analysis.

Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Data

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Rachit Lumb
The industry standard for seasonally adjusting data, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is not suitable for high-frequency data. We summarize and assess several of the most popular seasonal adjustment methods for weekly data given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher frequencies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C4, C5, C52, C8, E, E0, E01, E2, E21

Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata

Staff Analytical Note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi
When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals.

Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2024-30 Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman, Mike West
We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes.

Untapped Potential: Mobile Device Ownership and Mobile Payments in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2024-25 Marie-Hélène Felt, Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera
We present a two-stage model of mobile phone and mobile payment usage that controls for selectivity. This reveals unobserved factors that work against having a mobile phone and toward mobile paying. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs.
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