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331 Results

Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the second wave in Canada

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the demand for cash. Cash in circulation increased sharply from March through December 2020, particularly in the early months of this period. Although use of electronic methods of payment also increased significantly, cash use for payments remains high for low-value transactions and among certain demographic groups.

A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks

Staff Working Paper 2021-29 Xu Zhang
Combining various high frequency financial data with central bank projections, I construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks not predictable by the public information preceding a central bank’s announcements. I then study the causal effects of monetary policy on the macro economy.

Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution

Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

An Empirical Analysis of Bill Payment Choices

Staff Working Paper 2021-23 Anneke Kosse
How do Canadians pay their bills? 2019 survey data collected from over 4,000 Canadian consumers show how people’s bill payment choices vary with consumer characteristics and types of bills. The data also reveal that many consumers feel limited in their choices, which suggests that preferences of billers might play an important role as well.

Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data

Are summers getting hotter? Do daily temperatures change more than they used to? Using daily Canadian temperature data from 1960 to 2020 and modern econometric methods, we provide economists and policy-makers evidence on the important climate change issue of evolving temperatures.

Four Decades of Canadian Earnings Inequality and Dynamics Across Workers and Firms

We use four decades of Canadian matched employer-employee data to explore how inequality and the dynamics of individual earnings have evolved over time in Canada. We also examine how the earnings growth of individuals is related to the growth of their employers.

Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields

Staff Working Paper 2021-14 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
We investigate the economic forces behind the secular decline in bond yields. Before the anchoring of inflation in the mid-1990s, nominal shocks drove inflation, output and bond yields. Afterward, the impacts of nominal shocks were much less significant

Cash and COVID-19: The Effects of Lifting Containment Measures on Cash Demand and Use

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-3 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Julia Zhu
Using Bank Note Distribution System data on the demand for cash up to September 2020, we find that demand was strong. This is true even though cash use for payments declined early in the pandemic. When mobility restrictions and lockdown measures were eased, cash use for payments increased sharply but remained less popular than electronic methods of payment.

Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy

We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making.