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28 Results

House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data

Staff Working Paper 2022-39 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Marianna Kudlyak
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response.

Analyzing the house price boom in the suburbs of Canada’s major cities during the pandemic

Staff Analytical Note 2022-7 Louis Morel
We assess how location affects house prices in Canada. The gap in prices between suburbs and downtown was closing gradually before the pandemic. The gap has been closing faster since spring 2020. This finding reflects a shift in preferences toward more living space.

Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers

Staff Analytical Note 2022-1 Mikael Khan, Yang Xu
We introduce a novel approach to categorize mortgaged homebuyers into first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors. We show how these groups contribute to activity in Canadian housing markets, and we analyze the differences in their demographic and financial characteristics.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31

Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline

Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu
We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.

Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation

Staff Working Paper 2021-28 Heng Chen, Matthew Strathearn, Marcel Voia
The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, R, R2, R22

Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness

Staff Analytical Note 2021-4 Mikael Khan, Olga Bilyk, Matthew Ackman
Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified.

Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19

Staff Analytical Note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée
COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults.

The Formation of House Price Expectations in Canada: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment

Staff Analytical Note 2019-24 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete
We conduct a randomized information experiment leveraging the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We provide causal evidence that respondents revise both their short- and medium-term expectations of future house price growth in a way that is consistent with observed short-term momentum in house prices. However, empirically, house price growth tends to revert to its mean in the medium term.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, R, R2, R21

Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales

Staff Analytical Note 2019-12 Mikael Khan, Taylor Webley
We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.
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