Stress testing central counterparties for resolution planning Staff Analytical Note 2025-11 Katherine Brennan, Bo Young Chang, Alper Odabasioglu, Radoslav Raykov The Bank of Canada completed its first resolution plan for the Canadian Derivatives and Clearing Corporation (CDCC) in 2024. To estimate the resolution costs, we apply the extreme value theory method to simulate the credit losses that would result from extreme scenarios where multiple clearing members default at the same time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G17, G2, G23, G28
The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking Staff Working Paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks Staff Analytical Note 2025-4 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Ruhani Walia We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32
Using new loan data to better understand mortgage holders Staff Analytical Note 2025-1 Odae Al Aboud, Saarah Sheikh, Adam Su, Yang Xu The Bank of Canada is using an enhanced dataset that tracks the stock of outstanding mortgages and home equity lines of credit held by federally regulated lenders. This paper highlights some of the new details in the dataset and how they impact the Bank’s understanding of the mortgage market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28
Interaction of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies: Practice Ahead of Theory Staff Discussion Paper 2024-18 Thibaut Duprey, Yaz Terajima, Jing Yang We draw on the Canadian experience to examine how monetary and macroprudential policies interact and possibly complement each other in achieving their respective price and financial stability objectives. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Mortgage stress tests and household financial resilience under monetary policy tightening Staff Analytical Note 2024-25 Jonathan Hartley, Nuno Paixão This note analyzes mortgage stress tests, a macroprudential tool. We find that when mortgage stress tests are applied to all mortgage purchase originations, they improve credit quality and reduce credit and house price growth. They also improve the resilience of borrowers to financial shocks, such as the large increase in interest rates during 2022–23. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, G28, G5, G50, G51
Entry and Exit in Treasury Auctions Staff Working Paper 2024-29 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Eric Richert, Milena Wittwer This paper introduces and estimates a structural model of the Canadian primary market for government debt. We assess the role of dealer exit in this market as a key reason for increased, yet irregular, customer entry and quantify the benefits of greater customer competition against the costs of higher market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G1, G12, G2, G28
Credit Card Minimum Payment Restrictions Staff Working Paper 2024-26 Jason Allen, Michael Boutros, Benedict Guttman-Kenney We study a government policy that restricts repayment choices with the aim of reducing credit card debt and estimate its effects by applying a difference-in-differences methodology to comprehensive credit-reporting data about Canadian consumers. We find the policy has trade-offs: reducing revolving debt comes at a cost of reducing credit access, and potentially increasing delinquency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D1, D18, E, E2, E21, G, G2, G28, G5, G51
Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases Staff Discussion Paper 2024-5 Chinara Azizova, Jonathan Witmer, Xu Zhang In March 2020, the Bank of Canada implemented the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, eventually purchasing approximately $340 billion of government bonds. In this paper, we analyze the impact of this program on financial market prices and yields as well as on GDP and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
Fire Sales and Liquidity Requirements Staff Working Paper 2024-18 Yuteng Cheng, Roberto Robatto We study liquidity requirements in a framework with fire sales. The framework nests three common pricing mechanisms and produces the same observables. Absent risk-sharing considerations, the equilibrium is efficient with cash-in-the-market pricing; a liquidity requirement is optimal with second-best-use pricing; and a liquidity ceiling (i.e., a cap on liquid assets) is optimal with adverse selection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G23, G28