On What States Do Prices Depend? Answers from Ecuador Staff Working Paper 2016-43 Craig Benedict, Mario J. Crucini, Anthony Landry In this paper, we argue that differences in the cost structures across sectors play an important role in firms’ decisions to adjust their prices. We develop a menu-cost model of pricing in which retail firms intermediate trade between producers and consumers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, F, F3, F33
A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43
Implementing Cross-Border Interbank Lending in BoC-GEM-FIN Staff Discussion Paper 2016-19 Malik Shukayev, Argyn Toktamyssov BIS interbank lending data show that the Great Recession generated large and persistent changes in the international interbank lending positions of various countries. The main objective of this study is to understand the role of changes in international interbank credit flows in transmitting shocks across borders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1
Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits Staff Discussion Paper 2016-17 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Tamon Takamura This note examines the merits of monetary policy adjustments in response to financial stability concerns, taking into account changes in the state of knowledge since the renewal of the inflation-targeting agreement in 2011. A key financial system vulnerability in Canada is elevated household indebtedness: as more and more households are nearing their debt-capacity limits, the likelihood and severity of a large negative correction in housing markets are also increasing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G18
Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E6, E65, G, G2, G28
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data Staff Working Paper 2016-40 Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna, Natalia Kyui We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30
The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies Staff Working Paper 2016-38 Gregory Bauer, Gurnain Pasricha, Rodrigo Sekkel, Yaz Terajima This paper analyzes the implications of the global financial cycle for conventional and unconventional monetary policies and macroprudential policy in small, open economies such as Canada. The paper starts by summarizing recent work on financial cycles and their growing correlation across borders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, International financial markets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E43, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58