An update on the Canadian money market mutual fund sector Staff analytical note 2025-25 Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova, Rishi Vala We examine the Canadian money market fund (MMF) sector and find that it has grown rapidly, holding a large share of treasury bills and commercial paper. Unlike in some other jurisdictions where investor outflows likely amplified stresses, Canadian MMFs experienced inflows during the March 2020 market turmoil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update Staff analytical note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
How changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy Staff analytical note 2024-3 Felipe Alves, Sushant Acharya We measure how the change in the share of constrained households in Canada following the COVID-19 recession has impacted the effectiveness of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E40, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas Staff working paper 2023-62 Qi Li, Xu Zhang We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E52, R, R0, R00 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory Staff working paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis Technical report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
How Long is Forever in the Laboratory? Three Implementations of an Infinite-Horizon Monetary Economy Staff working paper 2021-16 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang Standard monetary models adopt an infinite horizon with discounting. Testing these models in the lab requires implementing this horizon within a limited time frame. We compare three approaches to such an implementation and discuss their relative advantages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment Staff discussion paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange Staff working paper 2020-48 Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico We study the short-run effects of monetary policy using a search-theoretic monetary model in which agents are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate monetary shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation