February 18, 2008 The Implications of Globalization for the Economy and Public Policy Remarks Mark Carney British Columbia Chamber of Commerce and the Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia I chose to speak about globalization at the outset of my tenure because it will continue to be one of the forces shaping our economy and economic policy for years to come. Steady advances in transportation, communication, and information technologies, underpinned by the more widespread adoption of free-market economic policies, are shrinking the globe and expanding the global economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 21, 2006 Using No-Arbitrage Models to Predict Exchange Rates Financial System Review - December 2006 Antonio Diez de los Rios Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
How do Canadians perceive access to cash? Staff Analytical Note 2024-24 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao This paper introduces a subjective measure of cash accessibility in Canada, complementing existing distance-based metrics developed by Chen, O’Habib and Xiao (2023). Analyzing data from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey, this study explores how Canadians perceive their ease of accessing cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51
Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach Staff Working Paper 2011-19 Toni Gravelle, Fuchun Li In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G3, G32
Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff Discussion Paper 2023-22 Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, John Miedema, Jiamin Dai, Badr Omrane We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Accessibility, Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Financial services JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, E, E4, E42, E5, E50, I, I3, I31, O, O3, O33, O5, O51
Decomposing U.S. Nominal Interest Rates into Expected Inflation and Ex Ante Real Interest Rates Using Structural VAR Methodology Staff Working Paper 1996-2 Pierre St-Amant In this paper, the author uses structural vector autoregression methodology to decompose U.S. nominal interest rates into an expected inflation component and an ex ante real interest rate component. He identifies inflation expectations and ex ante real interest rate shocks by assuming that nominal interest rates and inflation expectations move one-for-one in the long-run—they are cointegrated (1,1)—and that the real interest rate is stationary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43
Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different? Staff Working Paper 2015-40 John Muellbauer, Pierre St-Amant, David Williams There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21, R3, R31
February 21, 2013 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 This issue features a summary of the Bank’s annual conference, Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities, which took place in October 2012, as well as two articles that present analysis of international macroeconomic coordination since the global financial crisis and the U.S. recovery from the Great Recession. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
November 13, 2015 Innovation, Central-Bank Style Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Rotman School of Management and Munk School of Global Affairs Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses how the Bank is tackling the most important strategic challenges facing central banks today and how innovative thinking is critical to its success. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Exchange rate regimes, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria Staff Working Paper 1996-5 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Walter Engert, Scott Hendry, Jamie Armour A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E52