Jamie Armour

Jamie has worked in the Financial Stability Department since 2011 supporting the Bank’s work analyzing international financial sector policies. Some of her previous work at the Bank included forecasting the Canadian economy and analysing core inflation measures and monetary policy rules. She holds an MA in economics from the University of British Columbia.

Contact

Jamie Armour

Financial Stability
Market Infrastructures Oversight

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

June 11, 2006 Evaluating Measures of Core Inflation

Since the Bank of Canada adopted inflation targeting in 1991, it has focused on a measure of core inflation as a shorter-term guide for monetary policy. When the targets were renewed in 2001, the Bank adopted CPIX as its measure of core inflation because of the advantages it offered. Leflèche and Armour review the experience with CPIX and whether the criteria used to select it in 2001 still favour the measure today. They describe the various measures of core inflation monitored by the Bank and evaluate them on the basis of the volatility of the components, the volatility of the core measures themselves, absence of bias relative to total CPI, predictive power, and certain practical criteria, including timeliness and credibility. They conclude that CPIX still satisfies all the empirical and practical criteria.

An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures

Staff Working Paper 2006-10 Jamie Armour
The author provides a statistical evaluation of various measures of core inflation for Canada.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model

Staff Working Paper 2002-1 Jamie Armour, Ben Fung, Dinah Maclean
In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in Taylor-type rules. Evidence in the literature suggests that Taylor-type rules are optimal in a number of models and are fairly robust across different models.

December 13, 1999 Feedback Rules for Inflation Control: An Overview of Recent Literature

Feedback rules are rules aimed at guiding policy-makers as they face the problem of keeping inflation close to a desired path without causing variability elsewhere in the economy. These rules link short-term interest rates, controlled by the central bank, to the rate of inflation and/or its deviation from a target rate. The authors describe the most popular types of feedback rules and review some simulation results.

A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria

A vector error-correction model (VECM) that forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to provide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on the effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.

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Research Interests

  • Financial Stability
  • Monetary Policy

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