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The global economic outlook has been clouded by a high degree of uncertainty, accentuated most recently by the war in Iraq.

The global economic recovery is under way, supported by continued improvements in fi nancial conditions and stronger domestic demand growth in many emerging-market economies.

Today, I'd like to discuss some of the crucial issues that we have been dealing with during this period. I'll begin with a brief overview of some key events that have led to the turbulence that continues to upset financial markets and that greatly contributed to the remarkably wide credit spreads that we now witness.

There was an unusually large decline of bank notes in circulation in October 2018. Some have argued that this was due to the legalization of cannabis in Canada in mid-October.

Pressures on the CORRA benchmark can emerge from the interaction of client borrowing behavior, dealer balance sheet constraints, even if the level of settlement balances is in a range deemed sufficient to meet the requirement of the payment system and the prudential demand of its members.

From the end of 2008 to the middle of last year, Canada experienced a short, sharp recession. With the exception of government spending, all major components of aggregate demand declined, and industrial production dropped 15 per cent.

Sovereign borrowing is rising, just as central banks are stepping back. Meanwhile, commercial bank holdings of sovereign bonds remain well below pre-global financial crisis levels. This leaves foreign investors and investment funds, often hedge funds, to absorb more of this growing supply. Their greater involvement supports liquidity and robust auction results, but it can also concentrate risk.

The Canadian economy continues to adjust to developments in the global economy.

The Bank’s internal credit risk assessment abilities are regularly enhanced. In this note, we present a recent innovation that extends the set of market-based indicators used in the credit risk assessment of financial counterparties.

As the ultimate provider of Canadian-dollar liquidity to the financial system, the Bank of Canada has the unique capacity to create Canadian-dollar claims on the central bank and the power to make secured loans or advances to chartered banks and other members of the Canadian Payments Association. The Bank supplies overnight credit on a routine basis through the Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) to direct participants in the Large Value Transfer System, and Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) to solvent deposit-taking institutions that require more substantial and prolonged credit. The authors review the policy framework that guides the Bank's lender-of-last-resort function, including the key issues, terms and conditions, and eligibility criteria associated with its SLF and ELA activities. Also discussed are foreign currency ELA, the relationship between SLF and ELA, systemic risk and Bank of Canada intervention, and the potential provision of liquidity to major clearing and settlement systems.