Sluggish Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2018-39 Monica Jain Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
February 8, 2018 At the Crossroads: Innovation and Inclusive Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins G7 Symposium on Innovation and Inclusive Growth Montebello, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses technological progress and how policy-makers can harness it for economic growth that benefits everyone. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, International topics, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Uncertain Costs and Vertical Differentiation in an Insurance Duopoly Staff Working Paper 2014-14 Radoslav Raykov Classical oligopoly models predict that firms differentiate vertically as a way of softening price competition, but some metrics suggest very little quality differentiation in the U.S. auto insurance market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, D8, D81, G, G2, G22, L, L2, L22
A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality Staff Discussion Paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58
Monetary Policy Governance: Bank of Canada Practices to Support Policy Effectiveness Staff Discussion Paper 2024-14 Brigitte Desroches, Sharon Kozicki, Laure Simon We examine different monetary policy governance structures and discuss the important roles of non-legislated processes and practices. We also provide an update on monetary policy governance at the Bank of Canada and how it has evolved over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E58
December 21, 2007 An Approach to Stress Testing the Canadian Mortgage Portfolio Financial System Review - December 2007 Moez Souissi Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Optimal Margining and Margin Relief in Centrally Cleared Derivatives Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-29 Radoslav Raykov A major policy challenge posed by derivatives clearinghouses is that their collateral requirements can rise sharply in times of stress, reducing market liquidity and further exacerbating downturns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21
Welfare Effects of Commodity Price and Exchange Rate Volatilities in a Multi-Sector Small Open Economy Model Staff Working Paper 2008-8 Ali Dib This paper develops a multi-sector New Keynesian model of a small open economy that includes commodity, manufacturing, non-tradable, and import sectors. Price and wage rigidities are sector specific, modelled à la Calvo-Yun style contracts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, E52, F, F3, F4
Imperfect Banking Competition and Macroeconomic Volatility: A DSGE Framework Staff Working Paper 2021-12 Jiaqi Li How do banks adjust their loan rate markup in response to macroeconomic shocks? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L13
Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32