April 30, 2022 Research Update - April 2022 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Bitcoin Awareness, Ownership and Use: 2016–20 Staff Discussion Paper 2022-10 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Gradon Nicholls, Marcel Voia In this paper, we examine trends in Canadian ownership of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from 2016 to 2020 using data from surveys conducted by the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5
Cash and COVID-19: What happened in 2021 Staff Discussion Paper 2022-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib, Joy Wu, Julia Zhu Using data from the Bank Note Distribution System and consumer surveys, we find that bank notes in circulation remained high through 2021. Canadians continued to rely on electronic methods of payment, but a significant share also continued using cash for payments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022 Staff Analytical Note 2022-4 Kyle Boutilier, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Eshini Ekanayake, Louis Poirier, Peter Shannon, Akash Uppal, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6
Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective Staff Working Paper 2022-18 Patrick Alexander, Abeer Reza How do a country’s exports change when its currency depreciates? Does it matter which forces drive the exchange rate deprecation in the first place? We find that this relationship varies greatly depending on what drives exchange rate movements, and we conclude that the direct relationship between the exchange rate and exports is weak for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F33, F4, F41
What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada Staff Working Paper 2022-17 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi COVID-19 affects technology adoption: online job postings for technology-related occupations fall less during pandemic lockdowns and pick up faster during reopenings than postings for more traditional occupations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J2, J23, J24, O, O1, O14
Addictive Platforms Staff Working Paper 2022-16 Shota Ichihashi, Byung-Cheol Kim We study competition for consumer attention, in which platforms can sacrifice service quality for attention. A platform can choose the “addictiveness” of its service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, L, L5, L51