Incorporating Trip-Chaining to Measuring Canadians’ Access to Cash Staff Working Paper 2025-16 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15 to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, O, O1, O18, R, R2, R22, R4, R41
The Optimum Quantity of Central Bank Reserves Staff Working Paper 2025-15 Jonathan Witmer This paper analyzes the optimal quantity of central bank reserves in an economy where reserves and other financial assets provide liquidity benefits. Using a static model, I derive a constrained Friedman rule that characterizes the socially optimal level of reserves, demonstrating that this quantity is neither necessarily large nor small but depends on the marginal benefits of reserves relative to alternative safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference Staff Working Paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62
A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science Staff Working Paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71
Liquidation Mechanisms and Price Impacts in DeFi Staff Working Paper 2025-12 Phoebe Tian, Yu Zhu This paper theoretically and empirically examines the price impacts of liquidations in DeFi and how different liquidation mechanisms affect the price impacts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G2, G20, G3, G33
The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade Staff Working Paper 2025-11 Lu Han Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, L, L1, L11
Estimating Discrete Choice Demand Models with Sparse Market-Product Shocks Staff Working Paper 2025-10 Zhentong Lu, Kenichi Shimizu We propose a novel approach to estimating consumer demand for differentiated products. We eliminate the need for instrumental variables by assuming demand shocks are sparse. Our empirical applications reveal strong evidence of sparsity in real-world datasets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, D, D1, L, L0, L00
The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking Staff Working Paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Breaking Down the US Employment Multiplier Using Micro-Level Data Staff Working Paper 2025-8 Edoardo Briganti, Holt Dwyer, Ricardo Duque Gabriel, Victor Sellemi We construct a new dataset of unanticipated contracts and examine their effects on employment growth. We find positive, significant and persistent effects on firms with fewer than 150 employees and estimate a cost-perjob that is an order of magnitude lower than previous estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62
Markups, Pass-Through, and Firm Heterogeneity with Sequentially Mixed Search Staff Working Paper 2025-7 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham Market power and pass-through of cost and demand shocks are studied in a market with free entry of heterogeneous firms and consumer mixed search. Equilibrium prices and markups are driven by variation in the elasticity of demand across firms. Improved conditions for buyers can either raise or lower market power. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11