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537
result(s)
Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-12
Tony Chernis,
Taylor Webley
We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
C53,
E,
E3,
E7
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies
Staff Working Paper 2022-20
Michelle Alexopoulos,
Xinfen Han,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
Xu Zhang
We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Financial markets,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E7,
E71
Identifying Financially Remote First Nations Reserves
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-11
Heng Chen,
Walter Engert,
Kim Huynh,
Daneal O’Habib
Chen et al. (2021) show that almost one-third of First Nations band offices in Canada are within 1 kilometre (km) of an automated banking machine (ABM) or financial institution (FI) branch and more than half are within 5 km.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial institutions,
Financial services,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5,
G,
G2,
G21
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning
Staff Working Paper 2022-10
James Chapman,
Ajit Desai
We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
C55,
E,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E52
Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies
Staff Working Paper 2022-6
Xing Guo,
Pablo Ottonello,
Diego Perez
We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52,
F,
F4,
F41,
F44
Payment Coordination and Liquidity Efficiency in the New Canadian Wholesale Payments System
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-3
Francisco Rivadeneyra,
Nellie Zhang
We study the impact of the Bank of Canada’s choice of settlement mechanism in Lynx on participant behaviors, liquidity usage, payment delays and the overall operational efficiency of the new system.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E58
On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators
Staff Working Paper 2022-5
Shang-Jin Wei,
Yinxi Xie
We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
International topics,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58,
F,
F1,
F11,
F12,
F4,
F41,
F6,
F62
Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods
Technical Report No. 120
Hossein Hosseini,
Craig Johnston,
Craig Logan,
Miguel Molico,
Xiangjin Shen,
Marie-Christine Tremblay
A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
C8,
C83,
G,
G1,
G3,
G32
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1
Y.-H. Henry Chen,
Erik Ens,
Olivier Gervais,
Hossein Hosseini,
Craig Johnston,
Serdar Kabaca,
Miguel Molico,
Sergey Paltsev,
Alex Proulx,
Argyn Toktamyssov
Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Economic models,
Financial stability,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C68,
D,
D5,
D58,
E,
E5,
E50,
O,
O4,
O44,
P,
P1,
P18,
Q,
Q5,
Q54