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801 result(s)

Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data

Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system.

The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

Staff Working Paper 2023-55 Serdar Birinci, Youngmin Park, Kurt See
When estimating earnings losses upon job separation, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J3, J31, J6, J63, J65

Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Staff Working Paper 2023-53 Stéphanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, L, L2, L25

An Overview of the Indigenous Economy in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-25 Alex Chernoff, Calista Cheung
Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth.

A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-23 Donald Coletti
The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions.

Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints

Staff Working Paper 2023-51 Jason Allen, Milena Wittwer
We examine how intermediary capitalization affects asset prices in a framework that allows for intermediary market power. We introduce a model in which capital-constrained intermediaries buy or trade an asset in an imperfectly competitive market, and we show that weaker capital constraints lead to both higher prices and intermediary markups.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D44, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G20, L, L1, L10

Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong
This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.
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