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2379
result(s)
Household Food Inflation in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2024-33
Olena Kostyshyna,
Maude Ouellet
We study food inflation rates for Canadian households during periods of low and high inflation from 2012Q4 to 2023Q4. Households experienced more varied inflation rates during the recent high inflation. Cumulative food inflation has been 2.2 percentage points higher for lower-income households than for highest-income households since the inflation surge.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E30,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment
Staff Working Paper 2024-32
Thibaut Duprey,
Soojin Jo,
Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Labour markets,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C33,
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J3,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge
Staff Working Paper 2024-31
Alberto Cavallo,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how price variation within a store changes with inflation, and whether households exploit these changes to reduce the burden of inflation. We find that price changes from discounts mitigated the inflation burden while cheapflation exacerbated it.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation: costs and benefits,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E30,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81
Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2024-30
Tony Chernis,
Gary Koop,
Emily Tallman,
Mike West
We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C53
CORRA: Explaining the rise in volumes and resulting upward pressure
Staff Analytical Note 2024-21
Boran Plong,
Neil Maru
On May 27, 2024, the settlement period for trading GoC bonds in the secondary market in Canada moved from two days to one. This shortened time for settling secondary cash bond trades caused CORRA volumes to rise significantly, and they have remained elevated since. This combined with the skew in demand for funding has pressured CORRA higher. We find no indications that any other factors are contributing to the most recent pressures on CORRA.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D5,
D53,
E,
E4,
E43,
E44,
E5,
E52,
G,
G1,
G12
Foreign exchange risk premiums and global currency factors
Staff Analytical Note 2024-20
Ingomar Krohn,
Mariel Yacolca Maguiña
Global currency risk factors continue to explain a large share of the variation in the Canadian dollar during the period following the 2008–09 global financial crisis. We show that they are also systematically important for risk premiums, and only in recent months has the role of idiosyncratic country-specific risks grown.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Exchange rates,
International financial markets
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31,
G,
G1,
G12
Entry and Exit in Treasury Auctions
Staff Working Paper 2024-29
Jason Allen,
Ali Hortaçsu,
Eric Richert,
Milena Wittwer
This paper introduces and estimates a structural model of the Canadian primary market for government debt. We assess the role of dealer exit in this market as a key reason for increased, yet irregular, customer entry and quantify the benefits of greater customer competition against the costs of higher market volatility.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D44,
D47,
G,
G1,
G12,
G2,
G28
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2024?
Staff Analytical Note 2024-19
David Beers,
Obiageri Ndukwe,
Alex Charron
The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default. The 2024 edition updates the historical data and revisits sovereign defaults on local currency debt.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Development economics,
Financial stability,
International financial markets
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F34,
G,
G1,
G10,
G14,
G15
Housing Affordability and Parental Income Support
Staff Working Paper 2024-28
Jason Allen,
Kyra Carmichael,
Robert Clark,
Shaoteng Li,
Nicolas Vincent
In many countries, the cost of housing has greatly outpaced income growth, leading to a housing affordability crisis. Leveraging Canadian loan-level data and quasi-experimental variation in payment-to-income constraints, we document an increasing reliance of first-time homebuyers on financial help from their parents, through mortgage co-signing. We show that parental support can effectively relax borrowing constraints—potentially to riskier borrowers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial services,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D6,
D64,
E,
E2,
E21,
E24,
G,
G1,
G18,
G5,
G51