In this paper, we develop a theoretical model which identifies four channels–import prices, competition with domestic suppliers and workers, and commodity prices–through which price- and wage-setting conditions in country j may affect inflation in country i.
Staff working papers
In this paper, the authors examine the aggregate national balance-sheets of non-financial corporations in Australia and the G7 countries with a view to assessing both their financial structure and their financial position. More importantly, the authors investigate whether the financial position of non-financial corporations (i.e., debt-to-equity ratio) is material to the economy's investment prospects and whether the importance of this channel differs depending on the structure of corporate financing i.e., bank-based or market-oriented financing structures.
Since the early 1980s, long-term government bond yields in the euro zone have declined, in line with those in other industrialized countries.
Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for CanadaThis paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most […]
This study examines the link between consumer expenditures and the Conference Board's Index of Consumer Attitudes, an index highly regarded for some time as a useful leading indicator of consumer expenditures. However, the theory that identifies why it may be useful in an analysis of consumption is less well established. To explore this question, we […]
This paper attempts to identify the trend unemployment rate, an empirical concept, using cointegration theory. The authors examine whether there is a cointegrating relationship between the observed unemployment rate and various structural factors, focussing neither on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) nor on the natural rate of unemployment, but rather on the trend unemployment rate, which they define in terms of cointegration.
In this report, the authors examine and compare twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy with respect to their paradigm, structure, and dynamic properties. These open-economy models can be grouped into two economic paradigms.
In this report, we evaluate several simple monetary policy rules in twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy. Our results indicate that none of the simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty, in that no single rule performs well in all models.
Bank of Canada Review articles
August 18, 2002 The third strategy employed by the Bank when dealing with uncertainty is the consideration of appropriate simple reaction functions or "rules" for the setting of the policy interest rate. Since John Taylor's presentation of his much-discussed rule, research on simple policy rules has exploded. Simple rules have several advantages. In particular, they are easy to construct and communicate and are believed by some to be robust, in the sense of generating good results in a variety of economic models. This article provides an overview of the recent research regarding the usefulness and robustness of simple monetary policy rules, particularly in models of the Canadian economy. It also describes and explains the role of simple rules in the conduct of monetary policy in Canada.
- "A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy"
(with Jean-Paul Lam, John Kuszczak, Ying Liu, and Pierre St-Amant). Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 28, No. 5, July 2006.
- "The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the canadian economy"
(with Jean-Paul Lam, John Kuszczak, Ying Liu, and Pierre St-Amant). Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 37, No. 4, November 2004.
- Workshop papers on Taylor Rules held 25 October 2001 at the Bank of Canada
- "Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Canadian Macroeconomic Models: A Comparison of the Participating Models"
(with John Kuszczak, Jean-Paul Lam, Ying Liu and Pierre St-Amant). Presented at the "Taylor Rules Workshop" held by the Bank of Canada, 25 October, 2001.
- "Simple Rules in the M1-VECM"
(with Jean-Paul Lam). Presented at the 35th Annual Meetings of the Canadian Economics Association, May 31 - June 3, 2001, McGill University, Montréal, Québec.