G32 - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

• Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-4 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Ruhani Walia

  We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32

• Supporting the Transition to Net-Zero Emissions: The Evolving Role of Central Banks

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-31 Karen McGuinness

  While climate change was largely tackled by government policies in the past, central banks are increasingly grappling with the risks climate change poses. They are evaluating their operational policies to reflect these risks and the transition to a net-zero economy. This paper explores the trade-offs and considerations central banks face.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E5, E58, E6, E63, G, G3, G32, Q, Q5, Q54

• Is Climate Transition Risk Priced into Corporate Credit Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swaps

  Staff Working Paper 2023-38 Andrea Ugolini, Juan C. Reboredo, Javier Ojea Ferreiro

  We study whether the credit derivatives of firms reflect the risk from climate transition. We find that climate transition risk has asymmetric and significant economic impacts on the credit risk of more vulnerable firms, and negligible effects on other firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C24, G, G1, G12, G3, G32, Q, Q5, Q54

• Crowdfunding and Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2023-28 David Cimon

  Crowdfunding may enable unique products to reach the consumer market. I model a crowdfunding technology that publicly screens consumer demand early in the production process. In this model, entrepreneurs like crowdfunding for risky projects where demand is uncertain, but not for large, safe projects or for projects where production costs are uncertain.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial markets, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G24, G3, G32

• Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints

  Staff Working Paper 2023-10 Kim Huynh, Robert Petrunia, Joel Rodrigue, Walter Steingress

  We examine the relationship between firms’ performance and credit constraints affecting export market entry. Using administrative Canadian firm-level data, our findings show that new exporters (a) increase their productivity, (b) raise their leverage ratio and (c) increase investment. We estimate that 48 percent of Canadian manufacturers face binding credit constraints when deciding whether to enter export markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, International topics, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F3, F36, G, G2, G20, G28, G3, G32

• Considerations for the allocation of non-default losses by financial market infrastructures

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-16 Daniele Costanzo, Radoslav Raykov

  Non-default losses of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) have gained attention due to their potential impacts on FMIs and FMI participants, and the lack of a common approach to address them. A key question is, who should absorb these losses?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G23, G28, G3, G32, G33

• How does the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet impact the banking system?

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-12 Daniel Bolduc-Zuluaga, Brad Howell, Grahame Johnson

  We examine how changes in the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet impact the banking system. Quantitative easing contributed to an increase in the size of the banking system’s balance sheet and an improvement in bank liquidity coverage ratios. Quantitative tightening is expected to partially reverse these impacts. The banking system will have to adjust its liquidity management strategy in response.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51, G, G2, G21, G23, G3, G32

• Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

  Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song

  We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23, G24, G3, G32

• Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods

  Technical Report No. 120 Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Craig Logan, Miguel Molico, Xiangjin Shen, Marie-Christine Tremblay

  A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C83, G, G1, G3, G32

• Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-16 Karim McDaniels, Nico Palesch, Sanjam Suri, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh

  We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Foreign reserves management JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G2, G24, G28, G3, G32