E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies

• Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning

  Staff Working Paper 2021-7 Pablo S. Castro, Ajit Desai, Han Du, Rodney Garratt, Francisco Rivadeneyra

  We demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning techniques to estimate the best-response functions of banks participating in high-value payments systems—a real-world strategic game of incomplete information.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): A, A1, A12, C, C7, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58

• Eggs in One Basket: Security and Convenience of Digital Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2021-6 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong

  Digital currencies store balances in anonymous electronic addresses. This paper analyzes the trade-offs between the safety and convenience of aggregating balances in addresses, electronic wallets and banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58

• (Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2021-5 Boris Chafwehé, Rigas Oikonomou, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel

  How should policy be designed at high debt levels, when fiscal authorities have little room to adjust taxes? Assigning the monetary authority a role in achieving debt sustainability makes it less effective in stabilizing inflation and output.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62

• Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds

  Staff Working Paper 2021-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Barbara Sadaba, Mark Kruger

  What are the main drivers behind the monetary policy reaction function of the People’s Bank of China?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E5, E52, E58

• Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-16 Grahame Johnson, Sharon Kozicki, Romanos Priftis, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang

  This paper summarizes the literature on the performance of various extended monetary policy tools when conventional policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound. We highlight issues that may arise when these tools are used by central banks of small open economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63

• 2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov

  This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union

  Staff Working Paper 2020-49 Serdar Kabaca, Renske Maas, Kostas Mavromatis, Romanos Priftis

  How should a central bank conduct quantitative easing (QE) in a monetary union when regions differ in their size and portfolio characteristics? Optimal QE policy suggests allocating greater purchases from the region that faces stronger portfolio frictions, and not necessarily according to each region’s size.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58

• The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel

  The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland

  How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58

• Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang

  As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58