Staff working papers

• On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2025-18 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet

  Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity of money. We develop a stylized model to examine this argument and the trade-offs involved in circulating programmable money.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58

• Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang

  We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83

• Incorporating Trip-Chaining to Measuring Canadians’ Access to Cash

  Staff Working Paper 2025-16 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao

  Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15 to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, O, O1, O18, R, R2, R22, R4, R41

• The Optimum Quantity of Central Bank Reserves

  Staff Working Paper 2025-15 Jonathan Witmer

  This paper analyzes the optimal quantity of central bank reserves in an economy where reserves and other financial assets provide liquidity benefits. Using a static model, I derive a constrained Friedman rule that characterizes the socially optimal level of reserves, demonstrating that this quantity is neither necessarily large nor small but depends on the marginal benefits of reserves relative to alternative safe assets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28

• Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference

  Staff Working Paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak

  We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62

• A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science

  Staff Working Paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir

  In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71

• Liquidation Mechanisms and Price Impacts in DeFi

  Staff Working Paper 2025-12 Phoebe Tian, Yu Zhu

  This paper theoretically and empirically examines the price impacts of liquidations in DeFi and how different liquidation mechanisms affect the price impacts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G2, G20, G3, G33

• The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2025-11 Lu Han

  Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, L, L1, L11

• Estimating Discrete Choice Demand Models with Sparse Market-Product Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2025-10 Zhentong Lu, Kenichi Shimizu

  We propose a novel approach to estimating consumer demand for differentiated products. We eliminate the need for instrumental variables by assuming demand shocks are sparse. Our empirical applications reveal strong evidence of sparsity in real-world datasets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, D, D1, L, L0, L00

• The Prudential Toolkit with Shadow Banking

  Staff Working Paper 2025-9 Kinda Hachem, Martin Kuncl

  Can regulators keep pace with banks’ creative regulatory workarounds? Our analysis unpacks the trade-offs between fixed regulations and crisis-triggered rules, showing that the latter are especially prone to circumvention—and can trigger larger, costlier bailouts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28