Staff Working Papers
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Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation
This paper identifies the aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 1.1% of the variation in U.S. public firms' aggregate investment. -
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions
We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. -
A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices
A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specific price by (or at) a specific date. A put option can therefore provide its holder insurance against a large drop in the stock price. This makes the prices of put options an ideal source of information for a market-based measure of the probability of a firm’s default. -
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields
Given that the stochastic discount factor (SDF) from any equilibrium model has direct implications for yield curves, the historical dynamics of the US Treasury yield curve should tell us what a good SDF should look like from a historical perspective. -
Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI). -
Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel
Standard theories of price adjustment are based on the problem of a single-product firm, and therefore they may not be well suited to analyze price dynamics in the economy with multiproduct firms. -
Optimal Taxation in Asset Markets with Adverse Selection
Consider markets for assets traded over the counter such as mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds. Sellers in these markets may have more information on the value of their assets and their liquidity needs than buyers do. Also, sellers and buyers must search for trade partners, which is time-consuming and costly. -
Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute
We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States. -
Welfare Analysis of Equilibria With and Without Early Termination Fees in the US Wireless Industry
The elimination of long-term contracts and early termination fees (ETFs) in the US wireless industry at the end of 2015 increased monthly service fees by 2 to 5 percent. Nevertheless, consumers are clearly better off without ETFs. While firms’ revenues from ETFs vanish, their profits from monthly fees increase. As a result, the overall effect on producer profits is less clear.