Staff discussion papers

• Income Inequality in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-16 Sarah Burkinshaw, Yaz Terajima, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  Data show that income inequality in Canada increased substantially during the 1980s and first half of the 1990s but has been relatively stable over the past 25 years. This increase was felt mainly by low-income earners and younger people, while older people benefited from higher retirement income.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Labour markets, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D6, D63, I, I2, I24, I3, I32, J, J3, J31, J32, N, N3, N32

• Canadians’ Access to Cash Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-15 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt

  This paper studies Canadians’ access to cash using the geographical distribution of automated banking machines (ABMs). During the pandemic, there have been no sustained adverse effects on cash accessibility.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51

• The Business Leaders’ Pulse—An Online Business Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-14 Tony Chernis, Chris D'Souza, Kevin MacLean, Tasha Reader, Joshua Slive, Farrukh Suvankulov

  This paper introduces the Business Leaders’ Pulse, a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making by asking firms about their sales and employment growth expectations, the risks to their business outlook, and topical questions that address specific information needs of the Bank.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Settlement Balances Deconstructed

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-13 Parnell Chu, Grahame Johnson, Scott Kinnear, Karen McGuinness, Matthew McNeely

  Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, public interest in the Bank’s balance sheet and, more specifically, the size of settlement balances, has grown. This paper deconstructs the concept of settlement balances and provides some context on their history, current state and possible future evolution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E59, E6, G, G0, G01

• Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley

  We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E7

• Identifying Financially Remote First Nations Reserves

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-11 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib

  Chen et al. (2021) show that almost one-third of First Nations band offices in Canada are within 1 kilometre (km) of an automated banking machine (ABM) or financial institution (FI) branch and more than half are within 5 km.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, G, G2, G21

• Bitcoin Awareness, Ownership and Use: 2016–20

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-10 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Gradon Nicholls, Marcel Voia

  In this paper, we examine trends in Canadian ownership of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from 2016 to 2020 using data from surveys conducted by the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51

• Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel

  Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5

• Cash and COVID-19: What happened in 2021

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib, Joy Wu, Julia Zhu

  Using data from the Bank Note Distribution System and consumer surveys, we find that bank notes in circulation remained high through 2021. Canadians continued to rely on electronic methods of payment, but a significant share also continued using cash for payments.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-7 Audra Bowlus, Youngmin Park, Chris Robinson

  This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, O, O4, O47