Monetary policy transmission

• An Overview of the Indigenous Economy in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-25 Alex Chernoff, Calista Cheung

  Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Development economics, Financial services, Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E02, N, N4, N41, N42, O, O4, O43, P, P4, P48
• September 19, 2023

  Household differences and monetary policy

  Speech summary Sharon Kozicki University of Regina Regina, Saskatchewan

  Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about how differences in debt, income and savings across households shaped their experience through the COVID-19 pandemic and how this is affecting monetary policy now.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
• September 19, 2023

  Rebalancing the economy while managing risks

  Remarks Sharon Kozicki University of Regina Regina, Saskatchewan

  Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about how household differences have affected the way that monetary policy is transmitted. She also discusses how the Bank is considering the role of mortgage interest costs in inflation.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
• September 7, 2023

  Staying the course

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta

  Speaking a day after we decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5%, Governor Tiff Macklem explores some key factors behind the decision. He also explains why the 2% inflation target supports a stable economy and greater prosperity for households and businesses.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Credibility, Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments
• September 7, 2023

  Economic progress report: Target in sight, but we’re not there yet

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta

  Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and what’s happening with inflation beyond the headline numbers. He also discusses why the Bank’s 2% inflation target is the right one.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Credibility, Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments

• A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

  Staff Working Paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie

  This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41

• Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler, Pierre-Yves Yanni

  We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

• It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-9 Greg Adams, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth. 

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E47, E5, E52

• Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance

  Staff Working Paper 2023-35 Amina Enkhbold

  I study how banking market concentration and reliance on wholesale funding affect monetary policy transmission to mortgage rates. I find that this transmission is imperfect and dampens the response of consumption, output, and housing prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Inflation targets, Monetary policy transmission, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
• June 8, 2023

  Economic progress report: Are we entering a new era of higher interest rates?

  Remarks Paul Beaudry Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia

  Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the latest interest rate decision and suggests reasons why longer-term interest rates could remain higher than they were before the pandemic.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Housing, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector