March 13, 2018
Potential output
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Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation
We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). -
December 14, 2017
Three Things Keeping Me Awake at Night
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses his long-term economic preoccupations now that the Canadian economy has nearly completed its journey home. -
November 16, 2017
An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest
The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability. -
November 1, 2017
Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce
Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be back before you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. When we were last here in April, we were celebrating the fact that we had upgraded our economic forecast following a […] -
Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report. -
October 3, 2017
Seeking Gazelles in Polar Bear Country
Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the decline in firm creation and productivity in the Canadian economy. -
April 18, 2017
Blame It on the Machines?
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses how automation could affect productivity and the Bank’s monetary policy. -
April 12, 2017
Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. -
April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.