International topics

• April 1, 2019

  Poloz talks trade: Canada’s services a bright spot

  Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce (BRCC) and the Nunavut Mining Symposium (NMS) Iqaluit, Nunavut

  Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce (BRCC) and the Nunavut Mining Symposium.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Service sector, Trade integration
• April 1, 2019

  Turbulent Times for Trade

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce (BRCC) and the Nunavut Mining Symposium (NMS) Iqaluit, Nunavut

  Governor Poloz talks about slowing international trade and how Canada’s rapidly growing services industries can help drive exports and growth.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Service sector, Trade integration

• Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-3 Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle

  Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F0, J, J3

• Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short

  We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3

• Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack

  We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43

• The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou

  How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Housing, International topics, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F4, F43, Q, Q3, Q33, Q4, Q43, R, R1, R12, R3, R31

• Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China

  Staff Working Paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong

  This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E62

• Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-13 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Lam

  This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
• October 16, 2018

  Keeping the financial system healthy

  

  Joshua Slive, Donald Coletti

  We are all better off if the financial system can weather a storm or two. And every one of us plays a role in keeping it that way.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics, Sectoral balance sheet

• The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-11 Rose Cunningham, Eden Hatzvi, Kun Mo

  The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15