Business fluctuations and cycles
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Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB
The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. -
Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle
We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation. -
Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation
This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment. -
May 4, 2020
Bridge to Recovery: The Bank’s COVID-19 Pandemic Response
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses measures the Bank has taken to address the COVID-19 pandemic and set the stage for recovery. -
IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance. -
Characterizing Breadth in Canadian Economic Activity
Real growth in gross domestic product tends to be meaningfully higher when a large share of industries and demand components are growing—that is, when growth is broad across many fronts. -
February 5, 2020
Securing prosperity is up to all of us
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains that Canada is well-positioned to secure prosperity and avoid a long period of slow growth if we take the right steps. -
February 5, 2020
Our Economic Destiny: Written in R-stars?
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about how to navigate slow growth and discusses the types of policies that would help secure long-term prosperity. -
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound
This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available.