The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff working paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Characterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective Staff analytical note 2018-27 Taylor Webley This note examines supply-side trends in Canadian non-energy industries and their implications for export performance. Between 2002 and 2016, capital stocks and total labour input declined in many industries that export non-energy goods. These soft trends in the factors of production have likely contributed to the decline in non-energy exports in about half of the goods industries analyzed in this note. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, F, F1, F19 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Does Outward Foreign Investment Matter for Canadian Productivity? Evidence from Greenfield Investments Staff working paper 2018-31 Naveen Rai, Lena Suchanek, Maria Bernier This paper seeks to understand how outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affects the productivity of Canadian firms. We estimate the impact of outward greenfield investment on measures of firm-level productivity using FDI data from roughly 2,000 Canadian firms and more than 4,000 outward FDI projects over the 2003–14 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F2, F21, F23 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Scale and Scope of Online Retail Staff analytical note 2018-19 Alex Chernoff This paper studies the growth of online retail over the period 1999–2012, using confidential firm-product-level data for Canada. The revenue of online retailers is decomposed into the contributions of product scope (the number of product categories) and product scale (average revenue per product category). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L11, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment Staff analytical note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff analytical note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration Staff working paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain Staff analytical note 2018-5 Hanna Halaburda The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D8, G, G2, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Capital-Goods Imports and US Growth Staff working paper 2018-1 Michele Cavallo, Anthony Landry Capital-goods imports have become an increasing source of growth for the U.S. economy. To understand this phenomenon, we build a neoclassical growth model with international trade in capital goods in which agents face exogenous paths of total factor and investment-specific productivity measures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E2, F, F2, F4, O, O3, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature Staff analytical note 2017-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Alexa Evans, Subrata Sarker, Lena Suchanek In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L8, L81, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity