February 24, 2016 Connecting the Dots: Elevated Household Debt and the Risk to Financial Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Guelph Chamber of Commerce Guelph, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses household debt, the risk it poses to financial stability and the role of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Funds management, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment? Staff discussion paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
January 20, 2016 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Ottawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Extending the Labour Market Indicator to the Canadian Provinces Staff discussion paper 2016-2 Alexander Fritsche, Katherine Ragan Calculating the labour market indicator (LMI) at the provincial level provides useful insights into Canada’s regional economies and reveals differing trends in the state of underlying labour market conditions across provinces. Conclusions based on the Canadian LMI do not necessarily translate to the provinces. In most cases, the correlations between the provincial LMIs and the underlying labour market variables have the expected sign. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E27, J, J2, J21, J23 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices Staff analytical note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
December 15, 2015 Indebted Households and Potential Vulnerabilities for the Canadian Financial System: A Microdata Analysis Financial System Review - December 2015 Gino Cateau, Tom Roberts, Jie Zhou Over the past decade, an increasing proportion of households in Canada have become highly indebted relative to their income. These highly indebted households now hold one-fifth of total Canadian household debt.Simulations suggest that this greater degree of household indebtedness could exacerbate the impact of shocks to income and interest rates relative to the pre-crisis period. However, an assessment of the vulnerability of the Canadian financial system should, among other factors, account for the ability of Canadian financial institutions to withstand losses from the household sector. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E5, E51
December 8, 2015 Prudent Preparation: The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policies Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Poloz speaks about the Bank’s updated framework for unconventional monetary policies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
November 19, 2015 Is Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker This article reviews and examines some of the main explanations for the slow growth that many advanced economies continue to experience seven years after the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Does this muted recovery reflect just a prolonged cycle in the aftermath of a financial crisis? Is it due to a structural inadequacy of demand leading to a long-lasting liquidity trap? Or is it largely supply side in nature, reflecting demographic and technological factors? Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4, O40
November 19, 2015 Recent Enhancements to the Management of Canada’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Mervin Merkowsky, Eric Wolfe As the size and complexity of the foreign exchange reserves have grown over the years, enhancements to the management framework needed to keep pace. This is a common theme for most reserve managers around the world. In Canada, the enhancements focused on governance, portfolio management, risk measurement and risk management. This article briefly describes these enhancements, why they were implemented and some of the lessons learned along the way. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Foreign reserves management, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1
October 21, 2015 Release of the Monetary Policy Report Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments