Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020 Staff discussion paper 2020-10 Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Guillaume Nolin, Karim Salhab, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle? Staff working paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J6, J64, J65 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks Staff working paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment Staff analytical note 2020-25 Dany Brouillette, Julien Champagne, Julien McDonald-Guimond After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff working paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models Staff working paper 2020-38 Barbara Sadaba, Sunčica Vujič, Sofia Maier What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, I, I2, J, J2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments Staff working paper 2020-36 Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner, Joseph Mullins, Youngmin Park Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D13, H, H3, H31, J, J2, J22, J24 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Canadian corporate investment gap Staff analytical note 2020-19 Chris D'Souza, Timothy Grieder, Daniel Hyun, Jonathan Witmer Business investment has been lower than expected in Canada and abroad since the financial crisis of 2007–09. This corporate investment gap is mirrored in firms’ other financing decisions, as they have increased cash holdings and dividend payments and decreased issuance of debt and equity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Is the stock market pricing in a V‑shaped recovery? Staff analytical note 2020-17 James Kyeong Major stock indexes have bounced back from their March 23 trough to about 10 percent below their peaks. However, stocks that are more sensitive to the business cycle have not performed as well during this market rally. This suggests that stock markets are pricing in a slower, shallower economic recovery. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19 Staff analytical note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, D14, E, E2, E24, E27, E6, E62, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting