Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys Staff Analytical Note 2024-5 Nicolas Bédard, Patrick Sabourin We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G5, H, H3
Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks Staff Working Paper 2024-8 Amina Enkhbold I investigate how monetary policy transmits to mortgage rates via the mortgage market concentration channel for both traditional and shadow banks in the United States from 2009 to 2019. On average, shadow and traditional banks exhibit only a slight disparity in transmitting monetary shocks to mortgage rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
How changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy Staff Analytical Note 2024-3 Felipe Alves, Sushant Acharya We measure how the change in the share of constrained households in Canada following the COVID-19 recession has impacted the effectiveness of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E40, E5, E50
The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission Staff Working Paper 2024-3 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We propose an open-economy New Keynesian model with financial integration that allows financial intermediaries to hold foreign long-term bonds. We study the implications of financial integration on monetary policy transmission. Among various aspects of financial integration, the bond duration plays a major role. These results hold for conventional and unconventional monetary policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F3, F36, F4, F42
February 6, 2024 Monetary policy: It’s perfectly imperfect Speech summary Tiff Macklem Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec Governor Tiff Macklem speaks about the effectiveness—and limitations—of monetary policy. He highlights how raising and lowering the policy interest rate ultimately keeps inflation low, stable and predictable, despite significant shocks to the economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Housing, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Productivity
February 6, 2024 Monetary policy: The right tool for the right job Remarks Tiff Macklem Montreal Council on Foreign Relations Montréal, Quebec Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how monetary policy is working to bring inflation down—and how it has worked to return inflation to target over the last 25 years. He also talks about the limits of monetary policy, and why the right focus is on controlling inflation in the medium term. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Housing, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Productivity
Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model Staff Analytical Note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E4, E43, E47, G, G5, G51
December 21, 2023 How higher interest rates affect inflation When the Bank of Canada changes its policy interest rate, it affects every part of the economy – but that does not happen all at once. Learn more about how raising and lowering interest rates takes effect through the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission
December 15, 2023 Lessons learned and looking ahead Speech summary Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario In his year-end remarks, Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how lessons learned from recent economic volatility are reshaping the way the Bank of Canada conducts economic analysis and communicates with the public. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
December 15, 2023 The path to price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability