Constraints on the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Dealing with Uncertainty in Financial Markets Technical Report No. 80 Kevin Clinton, Mark Zelmer Canada's economic performance in the first half of the 1990s was adversely affected by high premiums in interest rates that were brought on by political and economic uncertainties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58
Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection Staff Working Paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries, Laurens de Haan The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58
December 12, 2011 Growth in the Age of Deleveraging Remarks Mark Carney Empire Club of Canada / Canadian Club of Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Mark Carney discusses the factors driving global deleveraging and the implications for economic growth in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 23, 2004 A Taxonomy of Market Efficiency Financial System Review - December 2004 Gregory Bauer Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
No Double Standards: Quantifying the Impact of Standard Harmonization on Trade Staff Working Paper 2019-36 Julia Schmidt, Walter Steingress Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the effect of standard harmonization on trade flows and characterizes the extent to which it changes the cost and demand structure of exporting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F15, L, L1, L15
Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2017-14 Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy While central banks cannot provide complete foresight with respect to their future policy actions, it is in the interests of both central banks and market participants that central banks be transparent about their reaction functions and how they may evolve in response to economic developments, shocks, and risks to their outlooks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65
Rollover Risk and the Maturity Transformation Function of Banks Staff Working Paper 2014-8 Teodora Paligorova, João Santos This paper shows that banks that rely heavily on short-term funding engage less in maturity transformation in an attempt to decrease their exposure to rollover risk. These banks shorten both the maturity of their portfolio of loans as well as the maturity of newly issued loans. We find that the loan yield curve becomes steeper with banks’ increasing use of short-term funding. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21
Efficiency and Bargaining Power in the Interbank Loan Market Staff Working Paper 2012-29 Jason Allen, James Chapman, Federico Echenique, Matthew Shum Using detailed loan transactions-level data we examine the efficiency of an overnight interbank lending market, and the bargaining power of its participants. Our analysis relies on the equilibrium concept of the core, which imposes a set of no-arbitrage conditions on trades in the market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C7, C71, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility Staff Working Paper 2019-9 Cars Hommes, Joep Lustenhouwer Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E3, E32, E5, E52
Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44