A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market Staff analytical note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
A Q-Theory of Banks Staff working paper 2021-44 Juliane Beganau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, Matías Vieyra Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Covariates Hiding in the Tails Staff working paper 2021-45 Milian Bachem, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries We characterize the bias in cross-sectional Hill estimates caused by common underlying factors and propose two simple-to-implement remedies. To test for the presence, direction and size of the bias, we use monthly US stock returns and annual US Census county population data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates? Staff working paper 2021-62 Jin Cao, Valeriya Dinger, Tomás Gómez, Zuzana Gric, Martin Hodula, Alejandro Jara, Ragnar Juelsrud, Karolis Liaudinskas, Simona Malovaná, Yaz Terajima Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F34, F4, F42, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock Staff working paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E65, F, F3, F31, F36, F4, F42, G, G1, G18, G2, G23, G3, G38 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions Staff working paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, D, D1, D11, D12, D13, I, I3, I32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices Staff analytical note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
October 15, 1998 The Canadian Experience with Targets for Inflation Control Remarks Gordon Thiessen Queen's University Kingston, Ontario As an economist who worked as a banker for most of his career, Douglas Gibson brought an interesting perspective to public policy issues, to the relationship between government and business, and to the contribution of outside economists to government policies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System Staff discussion paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study Staff discussion paper 2023-1 Angelika Welte, Joy Wu The rise in digital payment innovations has spurred a discussion about the future of cash at the point of sale. The Bank conducted the 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study to study trends in merchant cash acceptance and monitor conditions for the potential issuance of a central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments