China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America Staff Working Paper 2012-32 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, M. Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci, TengTeng Xu The international business cycle is very important for Latin America’s economic performance as the recent global crisis vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, F, F4, F44, O, O5, O54
Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions Staff Working Paper 2022-37 Martin Harding, Rafael Wouters Using a nonlinear New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, we show that financial frictions generate large state-dependent amplification effects. Shocks propagate more strongly in periods of financial stress. We propose an endogenous regime-switching DSGE framework for efficient estimation and improved model fit. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management Staff Discussion Paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63
Perhaps the FOMC Did What It Said It Did: An Alternative Interpretation of the Great Inflation Staff Working Paper 2007-19 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation. Empirical results support a description of policy with an effective inflation target of roughly 7 percent in the 1970s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, N, N1
The Impact of Retail Payment Innovations on Cash Usage Staff Working Paper 2012-14 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Leonard Sabetti Many predict that innovations in retail payment may render cash obsolete. We investigate this possibility in the context of recent payment innovations such as contactless-credit and stored-value cards. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, E, E4, E41
June 23, 2005 Understanding the Benefits and Risks of Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligations Financial System Review - June 2005 Jim Armstrong, John Kiff Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Heterogeneous Returns to U.S. College Selectivity and the Value of Graduate Degree Attainment Staff Working Paper 2013-46 Mai Seki Existing studies on the returns to college selectivity have mixed results, mainly due to the difficulty of controlling for selection into more-selective colleges based on unobserved ability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C30, I, I2, I21
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance? Staff Discussion Paper 2025-7 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63
Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004 Staff Working Paper 2015-22 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Chunling Fu We use data from the Survey of Financial Security and the Survey of Household Spending to estimate the incidence and extent of income under-reporting in Canada in 1998 and 2004. We estimate that the proportion of households under-reporting income is roughly 35 to 50 per cent in both years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): H, H2, H26, I, I3, I32, K, K4, K42
June 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Cover page African Marriage Money The metal marriage currencies pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review