October 24, 2012 Monetary Policy Report – October 2012 The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.2 per cent in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. The economy is expected to return to full capacity by the end of 2013. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
January 13, 2015 Drilling Down - Understanding Oil Prices and Their Economic Impact Remarks Timothy Lane Madison International Trade Association (MITA) Madison, Wisconsin Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the causes of the recent drop in oil prices and its effects on the global and Canadian economies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
Inequality in Parental Transfers and Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid Staff Working Paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park This paper studies optimal need-based financial aid when parental transfers—unobserved by policymakers—vary across and within families of similar means. Using data on U.S. college students, I document substantial inequality in parental transfers, especially among wealthier families. I then analyze how this affects aid design aimed at reducing inefficiencies from borrowing constraints and the aid itself. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D6, D61, D64, D8, D82, I, I2, I22, J, J2, J24
From Monetary Policy Instruments to Administered Interest Rates: The Transmission Mechanism in Canada Technical Report No. 69 Kevin Clinton, Donna Howard The authors investigate interest-rate aspects of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy instruments in Canada, focussing on the stability of the relationships between some key interest rates and the instruments of monetary policy. To determine what shifts may have occurred in recent years, they describe movements in rate differentials, apply cointegration tests and estimate error-correction […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 3. The Dynamic Model: QPM Technical Report No. 75 Donald Coletti, Benjamin Hunt, David Rose, Robert Tetlow The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the consistent behavioural structure necessary for policy analysis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17
What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22
Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada Staff Working Paper 2008-10 Miroslav Misina, Greg Tkacz Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G1, G10
December 13, 2010 Living with Low for Long Remarks Mark Carney Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Current turbulence in Europe is a reminder that the crisis is not over, but has merely entered a new phase. In a world awash with debt, repairing the balance sheets of banks, households and countries will take years. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2007-20 Gregory Bauer, Keith Vorkink We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of both lagged volatility and returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, G, G1, G14
Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity Staff Working Paper 2010-12 Fuchun Li, Pierre St-Amant This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, E, E5, E50, G, G0, G01