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379
result(s)
It takes a panel to predict the future: What the stock market says about future economic growth in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2023-9
Greg Adams,
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
Valuation ratios in the Canadian stock market can help reveal investors’ expectations about future economic growth because the impact of economic growth on valuation ratios can vary across industries. We find that this variation helps produce accurate forecasts of future growth of real gross domestic product in Canada. The forecasts from our model declined by just over 3 percentage points between January 2022 and February 2023—a period when the Bank of Canada rapidly increased the overnight rate. As well, we find that interest-rate-sensitive industries had an outsized contribution to this expected slowdown in growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Financial markets,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E47,
E5,
E52
Crowdfunding and Risk
Staff Working Paper 2023-28
David Cimon
Crowdfunding may enable unique products to reach the consumer market. I model a crowdfunding technology that publicly screens consumer demand early in the production process. In this model, entrepreneurs like crowdfunding for risky projects where demand is uncertain, but not for large, safe projects or for projects where production costs are uncertain.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial markets,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G21,
G24,
G3,
G32
A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Support of Key Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-9
Joshua Fernandes,
Michael Mueller
The COVID-19 pandemic placed unprecedented strain on the global financial system. We describe how the Bank of Canada responded to the rapidly deteriorating liquidity in core Canadian fixed-income markets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E58,
G,
G0,
G01
Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence
Staff Working Paper 2023-25
John Duffy,
Janet Hua Jiang,
Huan Xie
We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C91,
C92,
D,
D8,
D81,
G,
G1,
G12
Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media
Staff Working Paper 2023-23
Alistair Macaulay,
Wenting Song
News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E43,
E44,
E5,
G,
G1
A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Market Operations Related to COVID-19
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-6
Grahame Johnson
This paper reviews the range of extraordinary programs launched by the Bank of Canada in response to the pandemic-related financial market disruption. It provides some recommendations for future interventions to ensure the programs are appropriately structured for the financial and economic stresses they are intended to address.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D47,
E,
E4,
E41,
E5,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G14,
G2,
G21,
G23,
H,
H1,
H12
Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey
Staff Analytical Note 2023-1
Annick Demers,
Tamara Gomes,
Stephane Gignac
The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C83,
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
E58,
G,
G1,
G12,
G14
Simulating Intraday Transactions in the Canadian Retail Batch System
Staff Working Paper 2023-1
Nellie Zhang
This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C63,
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E58
Financial Constraints and Corporate Investment in China
Staff Discussion Paper 2022-22
Kun Mo,
Michel Soudan
Financial constraints deter firms from pursuing optimal investment plans. In China, we find privately owned firms face greater financial constraints than state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This can be explained by our finding that lenders appear less concerned about the credit risk of SOEs, which causes distortions in the allocation of credit.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Firm dynamics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
G,
G1,
G3