How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.
What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital?
Developments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications.
Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development.
Central banks communicate the results of open market operations. This helps participants in financial markets more accurately estimate the prevailing demand and supply conditions in the market for overnight loans.
We present a two-country model featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions.
Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash.
The Interplay of Financial Education, Financial Literacy, Financial Inclusion and Financial Stability: Any Lessons for the Current Big Tech Era?The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we assess whether financial education might be a suitable tool to promote the financial inclusion opportunities that big techs provide. Second, we study how this potential financial inclusion could impact financial stability.
The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound.
Economic activities typically involve coordination among a large number of agents. These agents have to anticipate what other agents think before making their own decisions.