G28 - Government Policy and Regulation
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Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates?
Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway. -
The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada
We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country. -
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation
We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. -
Updated Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereigns
We update the Bank of Canada’s credit rating methodology for sovereigns, including our approach to assessing their fiscal position and monetary policy flexibility. We also explicitly consider climate-related factors. -
Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies
Macroprudential policy should aim for bank balance sheets that are larger and safer during normal times but smaller and riskier during financial crises. During recoveries from financial crises, monetary policy should complement macroprudential policy by being less expansive than what would be required to close the labour gap. -
Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness
Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified. -
Market Concentration and Uniform Pricing: Evidence from Bank Mergers
We show that US banks price deposits almost uniformly across their branches and that this pricing practice is more important than increases in local market concentration in explaining the deposit rate dynamics following bank mergers. -
Predicting Payment Migration in Canada
Developments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications. -
Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19
COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults.