E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
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Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
We estimate the effects of economic uncertainty on time use and discuss its macroeconomic implications. We develop a model to demonstrate that substitution between market and non-market work provides an additional insurance margin to households, weakening precautionary savings and labour supply and lowering aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying the contractionary effects of uncertainty. -
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update
We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth. -
The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles
This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations. -
Looking Through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation Expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma
Why might central banks want to look through supply-driven inflation sometimes and pivot away at other times? When does a change in monetary policy stance help anchor expectations? In this paper we present a simple environment that helps clarify these issues by offering an optimal policy perspective on recent central bank behaviour. -
How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?
This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth. -
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health
We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock. -
Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth
This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada. -
Job Ladder and Business Cycles
During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation. -
Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review
The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context.