E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital

• Labour Supply and Firm Size

  Staff Working Paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul

  This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31

• Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2023-29 Matteo Cacciatore, Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser

  We estimate the effects of economic uncertainty on time use and discuss its macroeconomic implications. We develop a model to demonstrate that substitution between market and non-market work provides an additional insurance margin to households, weakening precautionary savings and labour supply and lowering aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying the contractionary effects of uncertainty.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J22

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-7 Erik Ens, Kurt See, Corinne Luu

  We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

• The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2023-22 Michael Irwin

  This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E32, E4, E44, E6, E62

• Looking Through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation Expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma

  Staff Working Paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri

  Why might central banks want to look through supply-driven inflation sometimes and pivot away at other times? When does a change in monetary policy stance help anchor expectations? In this paper we present a simple environment that helps clarify these issues by offering an optimal policy perspective on recent central bank behaviour.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65

• How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang

  This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee

  We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

• Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-7 Audra Bowlus, Youngmin Park, Chris Robinson

  This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, O, O4, O47

• Job Ladder and Business Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves

  During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32

• Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-2 Felipe Alves, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Katya Kartashova, Soyoung Lee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See, Yaz Terajima, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D25, D3, D31, E, E2, E22, E24, E5, E50, E52